Is the flu over?

summary

At present, the epidemic situation of pandemic influenza is on the decline in the northern hemisphere. Experts generally believe that the second wave of 2009 influenza A (H1N1) has passed, whether the third wave will come, and if the third wave comes, how the mutation and intensity of the virus will be unknown. The World Health Organization believes that the prevention and control of the epidemic situation in various countries should not be slackened. Let's share my experience with you.

Is the flu over?

At present, industry experts generally believe that the second wave of 2009 influenza A (H1N1) has passed, whether the third wave will come, and if the third wave comes, how the mutation and intensity of the virus will be unknown. Information obtained by scientists at this stage shows that influenza A (H1N1) is not strong, but has characteristics. In terms of the number of deaths, influenza A (H1N1) virus can only be regarded as a more "mild" influenza virus. Mark lipschich, Professor of epidemiology at Harvard University School of public health, once said in September last year that the mortality rate of influenza A (H1N1) is not as serious as it was thought at the beginning of the outbreak, and may only be equivalent to that of ordinary seasonal influenza. Guan Yi believes that the relevant figures are actually higher than those of ordinary seasonal influenza, and how the ratio of lung disease caused by influenza A (H1N1) compares with that of ordinary seasonal influenza remains to be counted.

However, the influenza A (H1N1) virus has shown a "superior skill" in other aspects. In addition to the acute symptoms at the beginning of the outbreak, the most obvious one is that the epidemic of influenza A (H1N1) spread in the northern hemisphere in spring, summer and autumn last year. During this period, seasonal influenza is usually in a "dormant" state.

In this regard, Xiong Sidong, director of the Institute of immunobiology of Fudan University, believes that from the current situation, the boundary between influenza A (H1N1) and ordinary seasonal influenza has been relatively vague. Generally, the pathogen of influenza virus often mutates greatly during and after the epidemic.

matters needing attention

Regarding the susceptible population of influenza A (H1N1), there are many reports that 90% of the victims of influenza A (H1N1) are children or young people, and seasonal influenza mainly affects the elderly with physical deficiency. According to the data provided by Guan Yi, only 0.3% of people in China have antibodies to the new influenza virus, and 99.7% of people have no antibodies, which means that people are generally susceptible to influenza A (H1N1) virus, and vaccine coverage should be very high.